The Seafood Trade Brief — September 2026

Shrimp is trading as three separate markets this month: India firming on seasonal tightness, though new US antidumping rates now vary by exporter; Ecuador depressed by a China compliance dispute; Vietnam squeezed by tariff and antidumping costs now visible in farmgate prices.

Salmon moved the opposite way — Norway set a weekly export record and prices softened anyway, while Chile's tighter supply held firm. Pollock is the quiet story: raw material is tight on both sides of the Pacific. Two regulatory deadlines bracket the month — a US antidumping increase already in effect, and Canada's counter-tariff landing September 8.

Sources: trade reporting (Aug 2026); Fish Farming Expert (week 34 2026); AquaSangham (Aug 2026); US Dept. of Commerce POR21 final (Aug 13, 2026); trade press (Aug 18 and Aug 26, 2026).

01 · US antidumping rates rise on Indian shrimp

What happened: On September 4, US Commerce published final results in its 20th administrative review on Indian shrimp, setting exporter-specific antidumping rates of 4.04% (Devi Group), 7.01% (Sandhya Aqua Exports), and 5.53% for companies not individually examined — all up from preliminary results.

Why it matters: The final AD rates create meaningful differences in landed cost between Indian suppliers, making exporter-level duty verification increasingly important for US-bound purchases.

Source: US Dept. of Commerce, Federal Register 91 FR 56861 (Doc. 2026-18184), Sept 4, 2026.

02 · Vietnam pangasius remains under heavy US antidumping pressure

What happened: Commerce finalized a steeper antidumping rate on Vietnamese pangasius under POR21; the nationwide rate holds at $2.39/kg. Separately, Vietnamese shrimp exporters have cut FOB prices roughly 8–9% to offset their higher Section 301 tariff tier versus India and Ecuador.

Why it matters: US-bound Vietnamese seafood continues to face significant tariff and antidumping pressure, with pangasius carrying a particularly heavy AD burden.

Sources: Federal Register (POR21, pangasius), Aug 13, 2026; Asian Agribiz, Aug 2026.

03 · A China compliance dispute crashed Ecuador's shrimp price

What happened: China rejected roughly 4,700 tons of Ecuadorian shrimp in June over sulfite/antioxidant testing; 8 of 14 suspended plants were reauthorized August 18, six remain shut out.

Why it matters: CFR China pricing hit its lowest level since early 2024. This is a compliance-driven repricing, not a demand collapse.

Sources: Rio Times Online; trade press, Aug 18, 2026.

04 · Norway set a record export week — and prices softened anyway

What happened: Norway exported 43,555 tonnes in week 34 — an all-time weekly record — while spot pricing eased.

Why it matters: Record volume is outrunning even strong demand; cooling sea temperatures could tighten supply again within 60–90 days.

Source: Fish Farming Expert, week 34–35 2026.

05 · Pollock raw material is tight on both sides of the Pacific

What happened: Russian H&G is trading near $2,600/MT and Alaskan H&G near $3,300/MT, with Chinese processors buying hard despite a reasonable harvest.

Why it matters: Raw-material costs typically take one to two quarters to reach fillet and block pricing — this is an early signal, not yet a finished-goods move.

Source: trade reporting, Aug 2026.

06 · Canada will tax its largest seafood supplier starting Sep 8

What happened: Canada confirmed a 25% counter-tariff on US salmon, pollock, lobster and shrimp, effective September 8. Canadian seafood entering the US remains exempt from equivalent tariffs.

Why it matters: The burden runs one direction — US-origin product loses cost competitiveness in Canada with no reciprocal effect on Canadian exports south.

Source: trade press, Aug 26, 2026.

₹/kg, midpoint of reported range · 3 data points: prior year, prior month, current · bars scaled from ₹400 · approximate, trade reporting.

Species not already covered above — forward-looking only.

• King crab — tightness likely persists. Alaska king crab is trading near record wholesale levels on constrained supply. Risk is skewed toward continued tightness into Q4 holiday demand.
• Tuna (skipjack) — supply-driven firmness. Tight skipjack supply is pressuring the broader tuna complex higher. Worth monitoring whether this eases once current closures lift.
• Squid — seasonal peak, then a supply release. Korean demand is up roughly 15% year-on-year into Chuseok. Peru's additional jumbo squid quota isn't due until later in Q4, so current tightness likely holds through the holiday.

September looks like a sorting month rather than a directional one. Shrimp origins are separating on fundamentals that have little to do with each other — India on seasonality, Ecuador on compliance, Vietnam on tariff math — which argues against treating “shrimp” as a single market when contracting. Salmon is more conventional: Norway's oversupply is a timing issue cooling waters should correct within the quarter, while Chile's tightness likely persists into Q4. The under-discussed risk is feed cost — Peru's anchovy troubles are a structural input that will outlast this month's price story.