U.S. Section 301 Tariff Special Edition — July 2026

USTR sorted the 60 economies into three tiers. A 10% flat additional duty applies to economies that already ban forced-labor imports, have committed to do so under a Reciprocal Trade Agreement, or have a partial enforcement regime in place — India, Ecuador, Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, Argentina, Bangladesh and others. A 12.5% flat duty applies to economies that have not adopted any such prohibition — Vietnam, Thailand, China, Peru, Chile, Norway and most of the rest of the list. A third, narrower tier — the EU, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Switzerland — gets a combined rate: the Section 301 duty layers on top of each product's existing Most-Favored-Nation duty, capped so the two together don't exceed 10% (EU, Taiwan) or 12.5% (Japan, Korea, Switzerland).

1. Mar 12, 2026
   USTR initiates Section 301 investigation into 60 economies over forced-labor import enforcement.
2. Apr 28–29
   Initial USTR / Section 301 Committee hearings on the investigation.
3. Jun 2, 2026
   USTR determines the conduct is actionable; proposes 10–12.5% responsive tariffs.
4. Jul 6, 2026
   Public comment period closes — 1,600+ written comments received.
5. Jul 7–9, 2026
   Public hearings — 100+ witnesses testify, including NFI and NRA.
6. Jul 23, 2026
   USTR announces final action: 10% or 12.5% tariffs on 60 economies.
7. Jul 24, 2026
   Tariffs take effect, 12:01 a.m. ET; replaces the expiring Section 122 global surcharge.
8. Jul 24, 2026
   Lawsuit filed — Burlap & Barrel v. Greer, U.S. Court of International Trade.
9. Next
   Possible seafood-specific Section 301 investigation — requested by 23 industry groups and 20 House members, not yet initiated. Outlook
10. ~2030
    First statutory four-year review of this action's underlying findings. Outlook

Ranked by 2025 U.S. import value, these seven nations account for the large majority of American seafood trade:

Shrimp — the industry's biggest single commodity ($6.67B, 2025)

Shrimp importers come out marginally ahead of where they stood in 2025. Under last year's shifting rates — which briefly stacked a 50% IEEPA-based reciprocal/penalty tariff on Indian shrimp on top of separate anti-dumping and countervailing duties (a combined ~8%), before the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariff authority in February 2026 — the industry paid roughly $687m on $6.7bn of imports (about 10% average). Under the new flat Section 301 structure, that falls to an estimated $673m. India is the standout: from $336m paid on $2.4bn of imports (14%) in 2025 to an estimated $241m under the new 10% rate. Ecuador moves the other way, from $143m on $1.7bn (8%) to roughly $171m at the new flat 10%.

Salmon — the hardest-hit product ($5.84B, 2025)

Salmon absorbs the largest increase of any category. 2025 duties on $5.8bn of imports totaled about $381m (7% average, held down by Canada's near-zero rate). Under the new flat 12.5% rates on Chile and Norway — the two dominant suppliers, together roughly 60% of U.S. salmon imports by value — annualized duties could reach an estimated $606m. Chile alone could see its bill nearly double, from $170m to roughly $328m; Norway from $91m to roughly $141m.

Crab, lobster, tuna, whitefish (cod, pollock, tilapia, pangasius)

Precise 2025 duty figures for these categories were not available in the sources reviewed for this brief and should be treated as directional, medium-confidence estimates pending NOAA foreign-trade data pulls. Crab and lobster exposure is concentrated in Canada, which retains substantial USMCA exemption on both, cushioning the category. Tuna carries the only seafood-specific carve-out in the entire action — four Ecuadorian HTS codes (fresh/chilled albacore and yellowfin, frozen tuna/bonito fillets, tuna/skipjack not in oil) — but Ecuador supplies only a small share of total U.S. tuna volume, so most tuna imports (heavily Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam) still face the full 10–12.5% add-on. Whitefish and value-added/breaded seafood, sourced heavily from China and Vietnam, face the 12.5% tier with no identified exemptions.

Product outlook Outlook

Procurement decision matrix

First 30 days — priority checklist

• Recalculate landed cost on every open PO against the confirmed rate table (Section 03).
• Re-quote customers currently priced off 2025 blended duty assumptions.
• Confirm HTS classification for any product near a USMCA, net-of-MFN, or Ecuador-tuna exemption boundary.
• Flag India- and Ecuador-linked contracts for possible volume increase.
• Flag Chile-, Norway-, Vietnam- and Thailand-linked contracts for repricing or hedging conversations.
• Confirm with customs broker whether any entries qualify for the closed in-transit grace window retroactively.
• Register for CBP CSMS updates and USTR Federal Register alerts on this docket.

Second, separate investigation — not seafood-specific. Fact A distinct Section 301 investigation into "structural excess capacity" in manufacturing, targeting 16 economies (China, EU, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, India), was initiated March 11, 2026, with an unofficial July 24, 2026 target for completion. This targets manufacturing sectors broadly (steel, autos, electronics, chemicals, and more) rather than seafood specifically, though several named economies are major seafood suppliers.

A third, seafood-specific investigation is being actively requested but has not been initiated. Outlook Twenty-three seafood industry organizations (May 19, 2026) and twenty bipartisan House members led by Reps. Clay Higgins and Troy Carter (May 11, 2026) have formally asked USTR to open a dedicated Section 301 investigation into unfair seafood trade practices, citing President Trump's April 2025 Executive Order 14276 ("Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness") and Ambassador Greer's public statement that USTR expects to pursue "several investigations under Section 301," including one on seafood. As of this edition, USTR has not confirmed initiation. If opened, this would be the first Section 301 action aimed specifically at seafood trade practices — including antibiotic use in foreign aquaculture and IUU fishing.

Four-year statutory review. Fact Section 301 requires USTR to revisit the underlying finding roughly every four years; there is no automatic expiration between reviews. Trade counsel describe this structure as making the tariffs likely to persist for years absent a successful legal challenge.

HTS exclusions and customs guidance. Fact CBP has issued entry-filing guidance (CSMS #69326983) with applicable Chapter 99 headings; importers should monitor for any additional product-specific exclusion requests USTR may open, as it has done in prior Section 301 actions.

Confidence matrix

Volume 1 · Issue 001 · Tariff Special Edition · July 25, 2026.